“GDP
& Business forecasts Bulgaria '2020 by CBN Pannoff, Stoytcheff”: данни за
всичките сектори в икономиката на България – предприятия, служители, обороти,
разход за персонал, цена на зает, ДМА и задължения към финансови институции, %
кредити/ДМА
Кризата
бавно и стабилно се насочва и към кредитните институции в България. Бизнеса на
банките в страната, погледнат отстрани определено е подложен на все по-засилващ
се натиск от увеличаващи се депозити, Fintech компании и конкуренция на силни банки от ЕС. Това се
случва на фона на задаваща се рецесия и високо ниво рискови вземания, които се
чистят ударно и заради покриване на критерии за влизане в за евро-зоната.
Наред с
прогнозите за трудно пласиране на собствения ресурс в условия на задаващата се
криза, огромен външен финансов ресурс се насочва към банковите канали за
разпределение и отпускане на кредити при все още неизяснени критерии на
индустрии и сектори, за които никой не знае дали, как и кога ще излязат от
кризата.
Парите
трябва да се пласират. На кого и
с какъв риск?
За да предложим ефективен и бърз аналитичен инструмент в услуга на специалисти в анализа на риска и взимането на решения за отпускане на
кредит, събрахме 10 ключови показатели за всички работещи 82
икономически сектори в България с името:
“GDP & Business forecasts Bulgaria '2020 by CBN
Pannoff, Stoytcheff”
Включените данни за всеки един от секторите показват дела в оборотите на целия бизнес в България, брой активни
компании, средносписъчен брой служители по трудов договор, един от най-важния
показател за управление на бизнеса – разход за персонал и цената на служител,
най-тежкия за постигане KPI –
разходите за персонал спрямо оперативния приход.
В
изследването включихме данни за една от най-стабилните основи при оценка
на риска при кредит – дълготрайните материални активи и съотношението
кредити / ДМА за всеки
сектор на икономиката на страната.
Допълнително,
на база прогнозите за времето за рестартиране на икономиката, БВП по тримесечия и мерките от извънредното
положение засегнали определени индустрии и сектори направихме наша оценка
за годишния спад в оборотите на всички 82 сектори.
Публикуваме като
образец пълните данни за един от сравнително малките сектори - обработка на
кожи и производство на обувки от втората по оборот индустрия в България – преработващата,
включен в изследването на агенцията за ориентир какви данни съдържа (описанието
на таблиците е на английски език, валутата е евро).
Секторен
анализ
В този
сектор оперират 495 компании с 12,912 служители. Общите
оперативни приходи са €173.3m и са с дял от 0,1% от целия бизнес в България. Разхода
за персонал е 34.4 % от оперативния приход, а средната годишна цена на
служител е €4,615. Оценката на агенцията към март ‚2020 е, че оборотите през
фискалната година в този сектор ще спаднат в диапазона между -10 до -30% и ще е от средно
засегнатите. Общият размер на отпуснатите кредити е €26.8m, а съотношението
кредити/ДМА е 58.3%.
Индустрия: ПРЕРАБОТВАЩА
ПРОМИШЛЕНОСТ
Сектор: “Обработка на кожи;
производство на обувки и други изделия”
Bulgarian business ’2018
Industry
(CBN) (21)
|
Sectors
(CBN) (88)
|
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of
leather and related products
|
|
Enterprises
|
Number
|
495
|
Employees
|
Number
|
12 912
|
Operating Revenue
|
EUR, 000
|
173 296
|
BG shares
|
%
|
0,1%
|
Staff expenditures
|
EUR, 000
|
59 594
|
Staff expenditures / Revenue
|
%
|
34,4%
|
Cost per employee
|
EUR
|
4 615
|
Decrease in revenue '2020f
|
Low ( 0 - 10%)
|
|
Middle (-10-30%)
|
-10-30%
|
|
High (-30-80%)
|
||
Fixed assets
|
EUR, 000
|
45 943
|
Liabilities to financial institutions
|
EUR, 000
|
26 779
|
Liabilities / Fixed assets
|
%
|
58,3%
|
©
1991 – 2020 CBN Pannoff, Stoytcheff & Co.
Класификатор
на представените в България индустрии и прилежащите им сектори, за които сме
включили данни в изследването:
Industry (CBN) (21)
|
Sectors (CBN) (88)
|
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING
|
Crop and animal production, hunting and related
service activities
|
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING
|
Forestry and logging
|
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING
|
Fishing and aquaculture
|
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING
|
SUMMARY
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
Mining of coal and lignite
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
Mining of metal ores
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
Other mining and quarrying
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
Mining support service activities
|
MINING AND QUARRYING
|
SUMMARY
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of food products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of beverages
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of tobacco products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of textiles
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of wearing apparel
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of
leather and related products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of paper and paper products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Printing and reproduction of recorded media
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and
preparations
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of basic metals
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except
machinery &
equipment
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical
products
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of electrical equipment
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of machineryand equipment n.e.c.
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and
semi-trailers
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of other transport equipment
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Manufacture of furniture
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Other manufacturing
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment
|
MANUFACTURING
|
SUMMARY
|
ELECTRICIT Y, GAS, STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY
|
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
|
ELECTRICIT Y, GAS, STEAM AND AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLY
|
SUMMARY
|
WATER SUPPLY;SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND …
|
Water collection, treatment and supply
|
WATER SUPPLY;SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND …
|
Sewerage
|
WATER SUPPLY;SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND …
|
Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities;
materials recovery
|
WATER SUPPLY;SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND …
|
Remediation activities and other waste management
services
|
WATER SUPPLY;SEWERAGE, WASTE MANAGEMENT AND REMEDIATION ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
CONSTRUCTION
|
Construction of buildings
|
CONSTRUCTION
|
Civil engineering
|
CONSTRUCTION
|
Specialised construction activities
|
CONSTRUCTION
|
SUMMARY
|
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES
AND …
|
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
|
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES
AND …
|
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
|
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES
AND …
|
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
|
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF
MOTOR VEHICLES …
|
SUMMARY
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
Land transport and transport via pipelines
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
Water transport
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
Air transport
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
Warehousing and support activities for
transportation
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
Postal and courier activities
|
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE
|
SUMMARY
|
ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Accommodation
|
ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Food and beverage service activities
|
ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Publishing activities
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Motion picture, video and television programme
production, sound …
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Programming and broadcasting activities
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Telecommunications
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Computer programming, consultancy and related
activities
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
Information service activities
|
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
|
SUMMARY
|
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES
|
Financial service activities, except insurance and
pension funding
|
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES
|
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except …
|
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES
|
Activities auxiliary to financial services and
insurance activities
|
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES
|
Real estate activities
|
REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Legal and accounting activities
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Activities of head offices; management consultancy
activities
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Architectural and engineering activities; technical
testing and analysis
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Scientific research and development
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Advertising and market research
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Other professional, scientific and technical
activities
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
Veterinary activities
|
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Rental and leasing activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Employment activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and
related activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Security and investigation activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Services to buildings and landscape activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Office administrative, office support and other
business support activities
|
ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
EDUCATION
|
Education
|
EDUCATION
|
SUMMARY
|
HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES
|
Human health activities
|
HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES
|
Residential care activities
|
HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES
|
Social work activities without accommodation
|
HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
ARTS,
ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION
|
Creative, arts and entertainment activities
|
ARTS,
ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION
|
Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural
activities
|
ARTS,
ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION
|
Gambling and betting activities
|
ARTS,
ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION
|
Sports activities and amusement and recreation
activities
|
ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION
|
SUMMARY
|
OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Repair of computers and personal and household goods
|
OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
Other personal service activities
|
OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES
|
SUMMARY
|
©
1991 – 2020 CBN Pannoff, Stoytcheff & Co.
Важно е да
отбележим, че всички данни са за 2018 година. Данните за 2019 няма как да бъдат
представени преди да бъдат публикувани и обработени отчетите на компаниите за
2019 година, а в сегашното извънредно положение това няма да стане факт преди
септември месец 2020.
Образец на
включените данни и информация за цена може да получите, ако имате интерес на:
+359887208069, Л. Стойчев
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